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At the very least you should always join the airline program which will give you immediate priority over any non-members.

Also consider the distribution of members in a standard frequent flyer program.

This uncertainty is the actually one of the best way the average passenger can circumvent the standard upgrade rules.

Because airlines hate delays and sometimes decisions need to be made quickly at the gate to get the flight away on-time.

Say there are a total of 10 million members – you can expect about 120,000 (1.2%) mid-tier members, 5,000 (0.05%) top-tier members and 500 (0.005%) invitation-only members.

Of course, elite members happen to fly a lot more often than standard members, so their relative density on any given flight will be a lot higher.

We then need to play the airline equivalent of musical chairs and re-jig the cabin assignment. We have 5 unsold first class seats and 23 unsold business class seats – a total of 28 vacant seats in the premium classes. You can see immediately that we have 3 passengers (31-28) who will not be able to fly.

On the other hand we have 12 oversold premium economy passengers and 19 oversold economy passengers. We have to find 3 volunteers who are willing to take a later flight with a suitable level of compensation to sweeten the deal.

Now, say the airline has actually sold 146 economy, 51 premium economy, 19 business and 3 first class tickets on a particular flight.

A free airline upgrade to business class or first class is the holy grail for many travellers.

We would all like to buy a dirt-cheap discount economy ticket and then get ourselves upgraded or ‘bumped up’ into a premium class.

This causes some concern amongst the travelling public however it does probably help keep airfares a little lower.

Most airlines use yield management software which calculates the predicted number of no-shows on a specific route at a certain time and date.

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